FTA Brief Update
The US has been negotiating for almost 2 years a trade agreement with 3 Andean countries (Peru, Colombia and Ecuador). The agreement is very similar to the highly questioned CAFTA agreement. They had hoped that all three countries would cave in to all of their demands and agree to the US agenda. But it has been much more complicated. Here are the latest updates from the region.
Peru
Peru was the first country to close FTA negotiations, on December 7, 2005. The text of that agreement was published within a month [click here for text]This made a signing of the agreement possible (after the required 90 days) as soon as April 7, 2006. But things have gotten complicated. Peruvian Presidential elections will happen on Sunday the 9th. Seemingly from nowhere a candidate has risen with a platform that includes rejecting a FTA with the US and a reversal of neo-liberal economic policies. The US had hinted that the signing might happen a day or two after the elections, but the events which are transpiring may indicate that a more prudent approach is necessary. Late this week the USTR indicated that the signing had been delayed because a failure to agree on meat inspection measures. It would be highly embarrassing if they signed an agreement in the same week a president was elected who maintains a stark opposition to it. Late this week the National Elections Commission ruled that a TLC should be submitted for a national referendum. For this to become a reality, the Congress would have to agree to this, but nevertheless it is another political setback for the current president and the US agenda. For more on the Peruvian Elections: Article from COHA on Peruvian Elections Article from CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & POLICY RESEARCH
Colombia
Colombia closed negotiations on February 28, 2006. To date, the text of the agreement has still not been published, and there is varied speculation why, but essentially the clock for it to come up on the legislative calendar doesn’t begin to run until the text is published. There is widespread resistance inside the country to the agreement, and it will also be very controversial in the US Congress.
Ecuador
Ecuador has yet to close negotiations, and the administration, which has only been in office for 8 months is encountering stiff internal resistance to the agreement. During the negotiation session that lasted most of the last two weeks, there were widespread protests in the country, demanding that the negotiations be suspended. There has been brutal repression of the protests and more than 100 people remain under arrest around the country. The negotiations were suspended late this week, presumably due to a variety of factors. This week the legislature passed a law that would increase the tax on petroleum exports by about 50%. Undoubtedly the US was troubled by this new development. The other factor which is impossible to ignore is the continuing protests. For quite some time popular thinking has speculated that if the President signed an agreement, it would likely be his last act, as the popular resistance would lead to his downfall. Most recently they are talking about resuming talks sometime in mid-May. One of the demands of the protesters is that any TLC be submitted to a referendum. We will continue to follow this unfolding situation. As you may have noticed, these incidents have gotten significantly less international press coverage than the protests in France. We will continue to translate statements coming from the region. [More recent FTA news from Ecuador]